tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 70%

  1. 07:00 PHX → 12:51 ORD
    AA 2765 · American · 3h 51m · 91% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 49m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:40 ORD → 17:36 MEM
    AA 4647 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 56m · 75% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 124 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 49m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip8h 36mPHX 07:00 to MEM 17:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.