tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 81%

  1. 07:00 PHX → 12:51 ORD
    AA 2765 · American · 3h 51m · 91% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:00 ORD → 16:48 MEM
    AA 4651 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 48m · 84% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 84 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 09m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 48mPHX 07:00 to MEM 16:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.