tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 53%

  1. 07:00 PHX → 12:51 ORD
    AA 2765 · American · 3h 51m · 91% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 27m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:18 ORD → 19:28 BWI
    AA 4717 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 13m · 61% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 162 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 27m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip9h 31mPHX 07:00 to BWI 19:28, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.