tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Los Angeles via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 18:30 TPA → 21:00 ORD
    AA 2768 · American · 3h 31m · 63% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 ORD → 00:52 LAX +1 day
    AA 1209 · American · 4h 22m · 53% on time, 5.1% cancelled

Total trip 9h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (5.1% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip9h 22mTPA 18:30 to LAX 00:52, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.