Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Hebron via Washington: arrives on time 33%

  1. 14:55 ORD → 18:00 DCA
    AA 2769 · American · 2h 04m · 74% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:51 DCA → 20:42 CVG
    AA 5147 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 51m · 60% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip4h 47mORD 14:55 to CVG 20:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.