tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Buffalo via Washington: arrives on time 30%

  1. 19:03 TPA → 21:29 DCA
    AA 2773 · American · 2h 26m · 55% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 DCA → 23:59 BUF
    AA 4131 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 19m · 55% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip4h 56mTPA 19:03 to BUF 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.