tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Rochester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 59%

  1. 10:49 BOS → 12:26 PHL
    AA 2783 · American · 1h 37m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:17 PHL → 14:48 ROC
    AA 5907 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 28m · 81% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 3h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip3h 56mBOS 10:49 to ROC 14:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.