tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Cedar Rapids via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 15:30 PHX → 21:30 ORD
    AA 2786 · American · 4h 02m · 59% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ORD → 23:49 CID
    AA 3326 · American · 1h 14m · 57% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip6h 24mPHX 15:30 to CID 23:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.