tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Sioux Falls via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:30 PHX → 21:30 ORD
    AA 2786 · American · 4h 02m · 59% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 ORD → 00:18 FSD +1 day
    AA 4942 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 48m · 61% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip6h 48mPHX 15:30 to FSD 00:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.