tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 15:30 PHX → 21:30 ORD
    AA 2786 · American · 4h 02m · 59% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:36 ORD → 00:22 MSP +1 day
    AA 4472 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 73% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 52mPHX 15:30 to MSP 00:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.