tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Buffalo via New York: arrives on time 47%

  1. 12:11 TPA → 15:00 LGA
    AA 2805 · American · 2h 48m · 73% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:08 LGA → 17:48 BUF
    AA 4378 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 40m · 67% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 37mTPA 12:11 to BUF 17:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.