tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → San Francisco via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 6%

  1. 17:56 TPA → 19:50 DFW
    AA 2813 · American · 2h 54m · 38% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:44 DFW → 22:30 SFO
    AA 2228 · American · 3h 44m · 20% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection34%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 66% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (34%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (20%).
Total trip7h 32mTPA 17:56 to SFO 22:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.