tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Rapid City via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 52%

  1. 16:38 CLT → 18:37 DFW
    AA 2815 · American · 2h 58m · 56% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 26m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:03 DFW → 21:32 RAP
    AA 3567 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 29m · 75% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 41 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 26m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 54mCLT 16:38 to RAP 21:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.