tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Louisville via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 25%

  1. 16:39 MIA → 19:04 DFW
    AA 2823 · American · 3h 25m · 61% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DFW → 23:19 SDF
    AA 1365 · American · 2h 10m · 41% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip6h 41mMIA 16:39 to SDF 23:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.