tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 32%

  1. 16:39 MIA → 19:04 DFW
    AA 2823 · American · 3h 25m · 61% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 DFW → 21:18 XNA
    AA 4101 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 23m · 71% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 39mMIA 16:39 to XNA 21:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.