tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Birmingham via Miami: arrives on time 20%

  1. 13:54 TPA → 15:03 MIA
    AA 2831 · American · 1h 10m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:50 MIA → 16:55 BHM
    AA 3629 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 05m · 43% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip4h 01mTPA 13:54 to BHM 16:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.