tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → White Plains via Charlotte: arrives on time 35%

  1. 15:28 TPA → 17:26 CLT
    AA 2832 · American · 1h 58m · 65% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:18 CLT → 20:29 HPN
    AA 5016 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 11m · 59% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 01mTPA 15:28 to HPN 20:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.