tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Las Vegas via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 14:15 TPA → 16:22 ORD
    AA 2834 · American · 3h 10m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 ORD → 19:28 LAS
    AA 3292 · American · 3h 58m · 58% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip8h 13mTPA 14:15 to LAS 19:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.