tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Cleveland via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 14:15 TPA → 16:22 ORD
    AA 2834 · American · 3h 10m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:39 ORD → 20:14 CLE
    AA 3466 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 33m · 72% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 57mTPA 14:15 to CLE 20:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.