tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Kansas City via Philadelphia: arrives on time 30%

  1. 16:29 TPA → 19:14 PHL
    AA 2838 · American · 2h 45m · 55% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 PHL → 22:24 MCI
    AA 2901 · American · 3h 19m · 73% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 55mTPA 16:29 to MCI 22:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.