Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Tampa → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 58%
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16:29 TPA → 19:14 PHLAA 2838 · American · 2h 45m · 55% on time, 2.8% cancelled
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1h 24m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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20:38 PHL → 23:03 SDFAA 4466 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 86% on time, 3.3% cancelled
Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 24m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 34mTPA 16:29 to SDF 23:03, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.