tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Orlando via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 40%

  1. 10:54 TUL → 12:16 DFW
    AA 2851 · American · 1h 22m · 70% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:06 DFW → 16:57 MCO
    AA 1288 · American · 2h 51m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 03mTUL 10:54 to MCO 16:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.