tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → San Diego via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 33%

  1. 10:54 TUL → 12:16 DFW
    AA 2851 · American · 1h 22m · 70% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:20 DFW → 14:17 SAN
    AA 2459 · American · 2h 57m · 48% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip5h 23mTUL 10:54 to SAN 14:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.