tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 37%

  1. 13:51 TUL → 17:25 CLT
    AA 2853 · American · 2h 34m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:22 CLT → 20:00 DCA
    AA 2386 · American · 1h 38m · 58% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 09mTUL 13:51 to DCA 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.