tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dallas-Fort Worth via San Francisco: arrives on time 22%

  1. 14:05 PHX → 16:05 SFO
    AA 2860 · American · 2h 00m · 48% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:01 SFO → 22:47 DFW
    AA 1711 · American · 3h 46m · 51% on time, 5.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (5.1% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip6h 42mPHX 14:05 to DFW 22:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.