tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Dulles via Philadelphia: arrives on time 78%

  1. 09:47 JAX → 11:59 PHL
    AA 2865 · American · 2h 12m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 15:10 PHL → 16:18 IAD
    UA 3593 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 08m · 86% on time, 5.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 101 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (5.4% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 31mJAX 09:47 to IAD 16:18, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.