tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Kailua/Kona via Los Angeles: arrives on time 57%

  1. 10:36 PHX → 12:06 LAX
    AA 2869 · American · 1h 30m · 66% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 18m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:24 LAX → 16:05 KOA
    AA 59 · American · 5h 40m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 33 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 18m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip8h 28mPHX 10:36 to KOA 16:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.