tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Philadelphia via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:05 TVC → 19:09 DFW
    AA 2870 · American · 3h 02m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:19 DFW → 00:35 PHL +1 day
    AA 2542 · American · 3h 16m · 56% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip7h 30mTVC 17:05 to PHL 00:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.