tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Raleigh/Durham via Philadelphia: arrives on time 38%

  1. 17:21 MCI → 21:10 PHL
    AA 2875 · American · 2h 49m · 76% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 PHL → 23:34 RDU
    AA 3125 · American · 1h 34m · 65% on time, 13.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (13.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 13mMCI 17:21 to RDU 23:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.