tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Phoenix via Las Vegas: arrives on time 35%

  1. 13:41 ORD → 15:36 LAS
    AA 2877 · American · 3h 55m · 65% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:34 LAS → 17:48 PHX
    AA 3186 · American · 1h 14m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 07mORD 13:41 to PHX 17:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.