tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → New Orleans via Chicago: arrives on time 84%

  1. 23:56 SEA → 06:02 ORD
    AA 2881 · American · 4h 06m · 94% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:05 ORD → 11:44 MSY +1 day
    AA 4748 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 35m · 90% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 9h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 138 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 03m layover.
Arrives on time84%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip9h 44mSEA 23:56 to MSY 11:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.