tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Los Angeles via Austin: arrives on time 50%

  1. 15:25 PHX → 19:43 AUS
    AA 2892 · American · 2h 18m · 70% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:43 AUS → 21:56 LAX
    AA 1291 · American · 3h 13m · 72% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 31mPHX 15:25 to LAX 21:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.