tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Cleveland via Philadelphia: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:56 TPA → 20:40 PHL
    AA 2900 · American · 2h 44m · 49% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 PHL → 23:39 CLE
    AA 2253 · American · 1h 39m · 74% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 43mTPA 17:56 to CLE 23:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.