tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Birmingham via Philadelphia: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:56 TPA → 20:40 PHL
    AA 2900 · American · 2h 44m · 49% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 PHL → 23:40 BHM
    AA 5402 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 35m · 75% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 44mTPA 17:56 to BHM 23:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.