tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 20:06 DCA → 21:42 ORD
    AA 2903 · American · 2h 36m · 77% on time, 5.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 day
    AA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (5.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip7h 07mDCA 20:06 to PHX 00:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.