tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Chicago: arrives on time 42%

  1. 20:06 DCA → 21:42 ORD
    AA 2903 · American · 2h 36m · 77% on time, 5.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 ORD → 00:27 XNA +1 day
    AA 3960 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 57m · 68% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (5.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 21mDCA 20:06 to XNA 00:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.