tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Columbus → Washington via Philadelphia: arrives on time 30%

  1. 13:01 CMH → 14:40 PHL
    AA 2905 · American · 1h 39m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:29 PHL → 16:44 DCA
    AA 5636 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 15m · 43% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 3h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip3h 43mCMH 13:01 to DCA 16:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.