tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 19%

  1. 15:25 CLT → 16:46 ORD
    AA 2907 · American · 2h 21m · 51% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 ORD → 20:46 SFO
    AA 1620 · American · 4h 47m · 34% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (34%).
Total trip8h 21mCLT 15:25 to SFO 20:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.