tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 21%

  1. 15:25 CLT → 16:46 ORD
    AA 2907 · American · 2h 21m · 51% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:34 ORD → 19:19 PHX
    AA 3261 · American · 3h 45m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 54mCLT 15:25 to PHX 19:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.