tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 54%

  1. 12:21 MIA → 14:57 ORD
    AA 2910 · American · 3h 36m · 73% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:59 ORD → 19:23 RDU
    AA 4518 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 24m · 82% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip7h 02mMIA 12:21 to RDU 19:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.