tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Baltimore via Miami: arrives on time 15%

  1. 16:05 ORD → 20:26 MIA
    AA 2910 · American · 3h 21m · 39% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:17 MIA → 23:54 BWI
    AA 3216 · American · 2h 37m · 57% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip6h 49mORD 16:05 to BWI 23:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.