tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Norfolk via Miami: arrives on time 16%

  1. 16:05 ORD → 20:26 MIA
    AA 2910 · American · 3h 21m · 39% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:14 MIA → 23:37 ORF
    AA 775 · American · 2h 23m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection24%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 76% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (24%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 32mORD 16:05 to ORF 23:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.