tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Miami: arrives on time 20%

  1. 16:05 ORD → 20:26 MIA
    AA 2910 · American · 3h 21m · 39% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:16 MIA → 23:21 XNA
    AA 4049 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 07m · 82% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection26%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 74% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (26%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip7h 18mORD 16:05 to XNA 23:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.