tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → San Francisco via Miami: arrives on time 31%

  1. 13:44 DCA → 16:29 MIA
    AA 2915 · American · 2h 45m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:15 MIA → 20:20 SFO
    AA 2035 · American · 6h 05m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip9h 36mDCA 13:44 to SFO 20:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.