tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Pensacola via Charlotte: arrives on time 41%

  1. 17:45 ORD → 20:59 CLT
    AA 2917 · American · 2h 14m · 59% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 26m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:25 CLT → 23:08 PNS
    AA 1007 · American · 1h 43m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 41 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 26m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 23mORD 17:45 to PNS 23:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.