tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Buffalo via Philadelphia: arrives on time 74%

  1. 15:19 ORD → 18:29 PHL
    AA 2925 · American · 2h 10m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:20 PHL → 23:53 BUF
    AA 5911 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 33m · 82% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 186 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 51m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip7h 34mORD 15:19 to BUF 23:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.