tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tucson → Chicago via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 23%

  1. 13:18 TUS → 17:50 DFW
    AA 2926 · American · 2h 32m · 72% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:38 DFW → 21:22 ORD
    AA 1424 · American · 2h 44m · 39% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip6h 04mTUS 13:18 to ORD 21:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.