tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Madison via Philadelphia: arrives on time 52%

  1. 07:15 PHX → 15:01 PHL
    AA 2927 · American · 4h 46m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:49 PHL → 17:22 MSN
    AA 5532 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 33m · 67% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection87%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 13% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (87%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip8h 07mPHX 07:15 to MSN 17:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.