tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → New York via Los Angeles: arrives on time 81%

  1. 16:48 PHX → 18:16 LAX
    AA 2930 · American · 1h 27m · 68% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:27 LAX → 06:03 JFK +1 day
    AA 10 · American · 5h 36m · 85% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 10h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 146 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip10h 15mPHX 16:48 to JFK 06:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.