tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → Chicago via Miami: arrives on time 30%

  1. 18:25 RIC → 20:55 MIA
    AA 2939 · American · 2h 30m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 MIA → 00:26 ORD +1 day
    AA 2323 · American · 3h 36m · 63% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Richmond). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip7h 01mRIC 18:25 to ORD 00:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.